Author: Ryan Grace
April 25, 2025
Good morning my tasty friends, I hope you’re all having a wonderful start to your weekend.
The cave has been a little short-staffed this week, Shelley is out hunting Sasquatch and Laurence is wandering the desert. In their absence, Dan and I have been scheming. We’ve been conducting some research, talking trade ideas, and trying to figure out how to hook a pressure washer up to a gas can.
We are 377 days in and 100k is back in the cross-hairs. Let’s go.
Biggest Weekly Gainers
*As of 10:00 AM, 5-2-25
Available at tastytrade
BCH +8%
LTC +6%
ETH +5%
Decentralized Exchange – (Available through tastycrypto)
VIRTUAL + 96%
LAYER +30%
PENGU +27%
It feels better out there.
That said, while we’re seeing some green shoots, weekly price momentum is still bearish for many tokens beyond BTC.
As I wrote about Wednesday… BTC is trading much better than most of the market. Bitcoin Dominance is pushing new multi-year highs at 65%, with price momentum signaling potential for a move back to 100k and above.
After pulling back 30% from Jan -April, we’ve got a very nice bounce underway, and if this is a re-ignition of the rally, then it’s only just getting started. I’m sticking with what’s working. Leaning heavy on BTC, while I dream of higher ETH prices.
The Pipeline is Flowing
Yeah, that’s right. After what felt like forever, we just got a BAF alert. Big Ass Flows are back.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $917 million on April 22, 2025, marking the largest single-day inflow in 5-months.
Total spot BTC ETF AUM is now back at $118 billion, just shy of its $125 billion peak in January.
May the flows wash over you.
Dan's Stone Cold Crypto Pick of the Week
Each week we’re going to try and surface a new trade idea from the world of decentralized finance.
Dan’s pick for this week:
Hyperliquid is revolutionizing the decentralized exchange space with its high-performance Layer-1 blockchain, HyperEVM. By combining the speed of centralized systems with the transparency and security of decentralized solutions, Hyperliquid delivers near-instant trade settlements and unparalleled throughput. With impressive usage metrics and a growing reputation, this platform could redefine how traders engage with perpetual futures.
Some stats for your consideration:
Revenue & Usage Metrics
- 30 Day Active Users: 432.3K
- Total Value Locked: $827m
- 24 hr Revenue: $1.26m
- Total Exchange Volume: $181.8m
Pretty Charts
Trying something new here and just posting a few pictures I’ve come across in my internet travels.
A little sprinkle of brain food in the water.
NFA / DYOR
Liquidity as measured by global M2 appears to lead BTC on 12-week basis.
Source: https://x.com/RaoulGMI
Fiat flowing onchain. Total stablecoin market cap is now at an all-time high.
Source: Defillama.com
Reminder! Most large US wealth management platforms still aren’t permitted to offer BTC.
Source: https://x.com/Tephra_Digital
Is the AI Agent trade about to pop off again?
Source: TradingView
Total Crypto Market Cap back to $3T.
Source: CoinmarketCap
For the call option buyers, BTC IV is low-ish. Cheap-ish.
Source: TradingView
Looking Ahead
There’s an FOMC meeting and interest rate decision announcement scheduled for Wednesday (5/7) though it’s unlikely there’s any change to interest rate policy.
Both implied and realized volatility has come down following its early-April pop. As a result we have tighter estimated trading ranges for the next week, but don’t get complacent.
BTC is now pricing in a range of roughly 92k -104k, while ETH’s estimated trading range could take us back above 2k again. Daily price momentum is bullish and we’re clawing our way back into an environment where it might be a bit easier BTD within the implied volatility estimated trading range.
Zooming out the multi-moth range is basically 75k – 110k.
As always, keep your head on a swivel.
Stay tasty,
Ryan